GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
PLANNING COMMISSION
PC-1 FORM
(EXCECTIVE SUMMARY)
Background
The proposed extension of the
Motorway M-4 from Shamkot to Multan (Kot RabNawaz) which is a part of the
Multan Package will provide linkage of the Motorway to Multan City the heart of
southern Punjab. The proposed facility will alleviate traffic congestion in
Multan City. Traffic plying on the National Highway N-70 in Balochistan will
also benefit from it. The proposed extension has been largely aligned in an
agricultural land. It crosses the Multan- Karachi Railway track where a
rail-over bridge will be provided. Culverts for water course and minor canals,
subways/underpass on the existing link between the city &, villages will be
provided. Two interchanges one at Shamkot on the Khanewal Multan Highway (N-5)
and the other at Kot RabNawaz on the Multan Vehari road will also be provided.
The 39 km road will be
constructed as per NHA standards at a cost of Rs. 9,860.67million. It is a part
of the Multan Development Package and will connect Multan with Faisalabad en
route other cities/towns opening a new economic corridor for the area. The
project will comprise a four-lane motorway with bridges, underpasses and
flyovers as per site condition. Culverts shall be constructed for cross
drainage works. Road furniture comprising lane markings, traffic signs,
guardrails and reflectors will be provided. The recommendations of
environmental impact assessment report will also be incorporated in the design.
Project
The scheme provides for the
construction of a 39 Km long 4-lane access controlled Motorway between Shamkot
on the Motorway M-4 & Kot RabNawaz (Multan). Land measuring 8650 kanals
(approximate) will be acquired for meeting the requirement of the 100 meters
wide right of way of the motorway. Provision has also been made for
compensation & resettlement to the affecters presently residing in the area
earmarked for the ROW. Removal of utilities and mango fruit gardens will be
carried as per the proposed design & drawing. Construction of the proposed
Motorway extension, like all projects executed in virgin lands will disturb the
environmental status of the area as also the re-inhabitation/ re-settlement of'
the locals. However the proposed mottled access through this area, being
connected the national grid system of
the Motorway/ Expressway of Pakistan , shall promote industry and other
Infrastructure contributing towards the national economic uplift, & enhancing
the job opportunities for the locals, thus benefiting southern Punjab.
Cost
The cost of the project has been
estimated at Rs. 9,860.67 million.
Itemized details of' the project
costs are given as under:-
Capital
Cost:
Description
|
Cost
|
||
Local
Full Economic Cost
Total
|
|||
Earthwork&
Allied activities
|
1273.04
|
-
|
1273.04
|
Sub-Base&
Base
|
1020.58
|
-
|
1020.58
|
Surface
Course& Pavement
|
467.40
|
-
|
467.40
|
Structures
|
697.78
|
-
|
697.78
|
Drainage Work
|
363.24
|
-
|
363.24
|
Ancillary
Works
|
541.01
|
-
|
541.01
|
Ancillary
Works (a)
|
170.60
|
-
|
170.60
|
General items
|
155.35
|
-
|
155.35
|
Electrical
Works
|
20
|
-
|
20
|
Civil Work
Cost based on CSR 2008
|
5409.06
|
-
|
5409.06
|
Proposed
Premium 15% on CSR 2008
|
811.36
|
811.36
|
|
Total (Civil Work Cost)
|
6220.42
|
6220.42
|
|
Supervision
Charges @ 3%
|
186.61
|
-
|
186.61
|
Price
Escalation @ 6.5%, 13%, & 19.5% on the Construction Costs of the 2nd, 3rd
and 4th year
|
671
|
-
|
671
|
Consultancy
Services
|
311.02
|
-
|
311.02
|
NHA
Establishment Charges @ 2%
|
124.41
|
-
|
124.41
|
Environment
Mitigation @ 0.5% of Construction Cost
|
31.10
|
-
|
31.10
|
Acquisition of
Land
|
1200
|
-
|
1200
|
Sports
Facilities 0.5%, of Construction Cost
|
31.10
|
31.10
|
|
Interest
During Implementation
|
1036
|
1036
|
|
Commitment
Charges
|
49
|
49
|
|
Grand Total
|
9860.67
|
-
|
9860.67
|
Economic analysis
The economic analysis has yielded
the results given below:
• Benefit
Cost Ratio @ 12% Discount Rate: 2.12:1
• Net
Present Value @ 12% Discount Rate: Rs. 6,867.52 Million
• Internal
Rate of Return: 21%
• Sensitivity
Analysis:
Sensitivity
test
|
EIRR
percent
|
Benefits – (10 % reduction)
|
20
|
Cost +(10 % increase)
|
20
|
Period of implementation
The project is programmed for
implementation in 30 month. Work on the project is proposed to be initiated in
April, 2009 for completion in September 2012.
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
PLANNING COMMISSION
PC-1 FORM
1. Name of the project :
|
Extension of the Motorway M-4 from Sham kot
to Multan
(Kot RabNawaz) 39 Km.
|
2. Location
|
The project is located in the Multan
District of the Province
of the Punjab.
|
3. Authorities responsible for:
i.
Sponsoring
ii.
Execution
iii.
Operation and maintenance
iv.
Concerned federal ministry
|
Ministry
of Communications
National
Highway Authority
National
Highway Authority
Ministry
of Communications
|
4. Plan provision
i) If the Project is included in the
medium term / five year plan, specify actual allocation.
|
NILL
|
ii) If not included in the current plan,
what warrants its inclusion and how is it now proposed to be accommodated.
|
An allocation of Rs.750.00 million has
been made for the project in the PSDP 2008-09.
|
5. Project objectives and its relationship
with sector objectives
(i) Project Objectives:
Following are the vital elements;
·
Connect Multan with Faisalabad and route to
other cities/towns.
·
Opening a new economic corridor for the area of
Multan.
·
Smooth
and safe journey.
·
Reduce
heavy vehicles traffic congestion in Multan.
·
Reduce
terrorism and robbery accidents.
·
Reduce
traffic accidents.
·
Reduction
in the travel time
·
Reduce
the cost of transportation.
·
Increase
trade within the country.
·
Increase
in the revenue of the government.
(ii) Relationship with
Sector Objectives:
The rationale of the project is in keep with the
sector progress objectives which provide for the sustainable release of a
fruitful and capable national highway system causative to lower transportation
costs.
6. Description,
justification, technical parameters and technology transfer aspects:
Justification:
The extension of the Motorway M-4 will
contribute towards the development of an environment, whereby the exiting
traffic & the traffic in the years to come, shall be catered for at an
adequate level of service. This will result in benefits to the economy. The
proposed extension of M-4 is a part of the Multan. Development Package, which
focuses primarily on the linkage of Multan City (Southern Punjab) with the
motorway /express network of Pakistan. The proposed facility will also
facilitate the traffic in Balochistan commuting through the National Highway
N-70.
The extension of M-4-.1 will drastically
reduce the traffic congestion particularly heavy vehicular traffic in MIultan
city, & serve as a bypass to the city through which all kinds of traffic
originating / destined for cities in Balochistan, Shujabad and Bhawalpur passes
presently.
Description:
The scheme provides for the
construction of a 4-lane access controlled Motorway between Sham kot on the
Motorway M-4and Kot RabNawaz (Multan) measuring 19km.Details of the technical
inputs / parameters, scope and specifications of the project are given below:-
Technical Parameters /
Standards
Standards / Specifications:
Geometrics:-
Extension of M-4 shall conform to the following specifications.
Design Speed: 120km/hr.
Road width (travel
Lanes): Four Lanes of 14.6m, with each lane of 3.65 m width.
Shoulders (treated):
1m inner
side, 2.5 m outer side with 0.5m rounding
Minimum passing sight
distance: 600 meters
Minimum Radius of
horizontal curve: 550 mm
Max. Super elevation
rate: 6 %
Maximum gradient: 04 %
Embankment side slopes: 2: 1
Cross slops travel way: 2%
Cross
slopes shoulders: 4%
Alignment:
Extension of Motorway M-4 takes off from
Sham Kot on the Khanewal Multan, Section of the National Highway N-5. It passes
through Chak No. 1, 02, Kurti, Basti Taran Wa1a, chak said khan, Ariwala and terminates
at Kot Rab Nawaz khan on the Multan Vehari Road. It crosses the railway track
(Lahore Multan Section) near Chak No. 02. The land between the starting point
& end point is largely cultivated land with some houses at some places
along with Mango fruit garden.
Civil
Works:
Details of the civil works and
their scope are given below:
Pavement
Design:
Design
Life: 10 years
Cumulative Equivalent Standard
Axle Load (ESAL): 30.12 million.
Design CBR: In view of soil classification and
representative CBR tests a design CBR value of. B% has been adopted for the
pavement design.
Tentative Pavement Thickness:
The recommended pavement thicknesses for different
layers of the pavement ale given below:-
Asphaltic wearing Course 50 mm
Asphaltic Base Course 80 mm
Aggregate base Course 250 mm
Sub-base Course 300 mm
Sub-grade 300
mm
Pavement design will be finalized
after detail design.
Bridges and Culverts:
Construction of bridge across the
railway track is envisaged. Subways/ underpass will be constructed at 5
to 6 places. Box and pipe culverts will be provided across the streams &
water courses.
Acquisition of Land:
Land measuring 8650 Kanals (approximate)
will be acquired for meeting the requirement of the standard ROW i.e. 80 m land
strip.
Climate
of the Project area:
Multan District:
Southern Punjab experiences a pleasant
climate during winter& extreme heat during the summer. The summer season
starts in March when abrupt changes in temperature are observed. These keep 'on
rising and remain high until October. May, June, and July are the hottest
months of the year while August and September are characterized by somehow
lower temperatures and higher humidity (monsoon period). The average means
maximum and minimum temperatures during the summer are 43C and 33C, respectively.
The winter season, which is mild, extends from November to February. During
winter the average means maximum and minimum temperatures are21C and 11C,
respectively. Other striking features of the area climate include low and
unpredictable rainfall (about86 mm per year) and lower humidity (40% to 60%).
7. Capital
cost estimates
(i) Date of
Estimation of the Capital Cost:
|
September,
2008
|
(ii) Basis
of Estimation of the Capital Cost:
|
The cost has been estimated on the basis of
the basis of NHA Composite Schedule of Rates 2008 with a premium of 15% on
the CSR 2008 rates.
|
Capital Cost:
Description
|
Cost
|
||
Local
Full Economic Cost
Total
|
|||
Earthwork&
Allied activities
|
1273.04
|
-
|
1273.04
|
Sub-Base&
Base
|
1020.58
|
-
|
1020.58
|
Surface
Course& Pavement
|
467.40
|
-
|
467.40
|
Structures
|
697.78
|
-
|
697.78
|
Drainage Work
|
363.24
|
-
|
363.24
|
Ancillary
Works
|
541.01
|
-
|
541.01
|
Ancillary
Works (a)
|
170.60
|
-
|
170.60
|
General items
|
155.35
|
-
|
155.35
|
Electrical
Works
|
20
|
-
|
20
|
Civil Work
Cost based on CSR 2008
|
5409.06
|
-
|
5409.06
|
Proposed
Premium 15% on CSR 2008
|
811.36
|
811.36
|
|
Total (Civil Work Cost)
|
6220.42
|
6220.42
|
|
Supervision
Charges @ 3%
|
186.61
|
-
|
186.61
|
Price
Escalation @ 6.5%, 13%, & 19.5% on the Construction Costs of the 2nd, 3rd
and 4th year
|
671
|
-
|
671
|
Consultancy
Services
|
311.02
|
-
|
311.02
|
NHA
Establishment Charges @ 2%
|
124.41
|
-
|
124.41
|
Environment
Mitigation @ 0.5% of Construction Cost
|
31.10
|
-
|
31.10
|
Acquisition of
Land
|
1200
|
-
|
1200
|
Sports
Facilities 0.5%, of Construction Cost
|
31.10
|
31.10
|
|
Interest
During Implementation
|
1036
|
1036
|
|
Commitment
Charges
|
49
|
49
|
|
Grand Total
|
9860.67
|
-
|
9860.67
|
(iv) Phasing of Capital Cost:-
The financial phasing of the project is given as
under:-
Years
|
Total Cost ( Rs million)
|
2008-09
|
1296.45
|
2009-10
|
3458.46
|
2010-11
|
3406.09
|
2011-12
|
1698.81
|
.
8.Annual
operating and maintenance cost after completion of the Project
|
The annual
maintenance cost will be 0.1% of the project cost
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9.Demand and supply
analysis
|
The supply, & demand situation has
been viewed from the stand point of the levels of service at which the
proposed road shall cater to the volumes of traffic at different periods of time,
in this connection a capacity analysis based on the
Highway Capacity manual of the American
Transport Research Board has been carried out. The analysis has therefore
been carried out for a 4 lane divided highway (catering to the traffic in
both directions). According to the capacity analysis, the traffic demand will
be met by the facilities envisaged for construction under the
project against different levels of
service, as indicated below;
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10.Financial Plan and Mode
of Financing:
|
The project will be co-financed through a
loan of the Asian Development Bank to the extent of 83% of the cost, while
the remaining 17% of the cost wil1 be
met by the GOP through its own resources, as per following breakup:-
Rs in million
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11. Project Benefits and
Analysis:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i) Financial:
|
The project will positively effect on the
transportation sector of Pakistan, as it’s aim is to link Multan with other
cities of the country so that trade will take place along with all other
economic activities will be generated more revenue will be collected at the
toll plazas of the Motorway. As aim is to reduce the transportation cost so
it will also helpful in increasing the productivity of different sector.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(iii) Social Benefits with
Indicators
|
The project will promote the whole the general
public as the roads of the country develops, it will positively benefits the
society as their cost of transportation will also decreases because of this
project.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(iv) Employment
Generation:
|
·
Reduced poverty level and increase access for
rural population and social services.
·
Incremental production of crops resulting
enhanced delivery of agriculture inputs.
·
Generation of additional employment
opportunities.
·
Increased flow of information to the rural
areas.
·
Provide better access to the natural resources
of the region.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(v) Environmental Impact.
|
The National Environment Quality Standards (NEQS)
define the limits for pollutants in air, water and soil from various sources.
The Project shall have no impact on the air or water quality of the project
except during the construction phase. All potentially adverse impacts arising
during construction can be mitigated satisfactorily and the residual impacts
reduced to an acceptable level with the inclusion of suitable environmental
protection clauses in the construction contract document.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12. Implementation
Schedule
|
The work may be commenced on April 2009
and be completed in 30 moths. As shown in the GANT chart.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13. Management Structure
and Manpower Requirements including Specialized Skills during Construction
and Operational Phases:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
a) Manpower Requirements
|
NHA Establishment
Consultants Staff
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 Additional Projects / Decisions required to Maximizes
Socio-Economic Benefits from the Proposed Project
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15. Certificate
Certified that the project proposal has been prepared
on the basis of instructions given by the Planning Commission for preparation
of the pc-I for the Infrastructure Sector Projects.
Prepared by:
Khurram Azad Khan
Consultant
Checked by:
General Manager Planning
National Highway Authority (NHA)
Islamabad.
Member (Planning)
National Highway Authority (NHA)
Islamabad
Approved By: Chairman National Highway
Authority
Islamabad
Extension of the Motorway M-4 from
Sham kot to Multan
(Kot
RabNawaz) 39 Km
Economic Analysis
1. Background:
The proposed
extension of M-4 from Shamkot to Multan (Kot Rab Nawaz) 39 km is a new
alignment having length 39 km. It is a part of the Multan Package, which
provides connection with the Motorway network, being an important linkage with Multan
City the heart of Southern Punjab. It would also alleviate traffic congestion
in Multan City. The traffic of Balochistan (N-70) is also benefiting from the
motorway net work. With the completion of the proposed works, a smoother and
faster travel facility would be made available. Economic justification of the
project has beep established by' showing its profitability in terms of the
benefits to the economy, through adoption of the discounted cash flow
technique. All costs and benefits attributed to the project are having been
expressed at the constant 2008 price levels. The projected stream of the
economic befits over the economic life of the project has been compared with
the estimated stream of economic costs, by bringing the two to a uniform basis through
the process of discounting. The economic indicators such as the Net Present
Value (NP$, Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) and the Internal Rate of Return
(IRR) have been computed.
2. Project benefits:
Tangible
benefits accruing from the implementation of any road project comprise of
vehicle operating cost (VOC) savings as well as travel time cost VTT) savings.
However, a major and important part of the benefits from the project
implementation is expected to accrue from VOC savings. As such a sensitivity
analysis has also been carried out by excluding travel time cost savings also.
Benefits:
The following are the benefits of the project:
1. Opening a new economic corridor for the
area of Multan.
The project will benefit the
Multan city because the most of the trade will take place through this route to
southern Punjab.
2. Reduce
heavy vehicles traffic congestion in Multan
This project will reduce the burden of heavy vehicles in the Multan city
so the this traffic does not damage the roads of the Multan city.
3. Employment
generation
As we know that there is low investment in country with which employment
level is also goes down, with help of the new jobs will be created which will
helpful for the people of Pakistan.
4. Reduce
terrorism and robbery accidents
Without the project the most of the roads are broken which is also used
by terrorist, smugglers, robbers etc. But with this project security level will
increase this will also cause to the all illegal activities on M-4.
5. Reduce
traffic accidents
This project will cause to the no of accidents on the M-4, which will
ultimately benefits the citizen of Pakistan.
6. Reduction
in the vehicle operating costs
These savings will accrue from the improved surface conditions for the
commuters using the proposed road as against the poor surface conditions of the
existing road, as indicated by their IRI values- The operating costs of the
vehicles commuting on the existing road
(under poor surface conditions) & those traveling on the improved
road with far better surface conditions, have been taken from the Pakistan
transport Plan Study 2009,1 duly updated for the escalation in the
intervening period.
7. Savings
in. time due to the proposed motorway.
These benefits will accrue from
the higher commuting speed of the vehicles traveling on the proposed improved
road (because of the higher level of service), as against the low speed of
vehicles traveling on the existing road with poor traveling conditions.
3. Traffic likely to use the
proposed Service Road
With the
construction of the proposed road, a significant traffic volume is expected to
be generated. Such traffic has been expressed in terms of percentage as given
below. These percentages have been applied to the diverted traffic tabulated
above to arrive at the total traffic.
Year
|
Generated
traffic %
|
2013
|
1
|
2014
|
2
|
2015
|
3
|
2016
|
4
|
2017
|
5
|
2018
|
7
|
2019
|
9
|
2020
|
11
|
2021
|
13
|
2022
|
15
|
4.
Average Operating Speeds
Average
operating speeds for various vehicles have been utilized to work out the
vehicle operating costs. These are as given as under:
Vehicle
Operating Speeds (Km/h)
Description
|
Car
|
Bus
|
Coaster
|
Tractor
|
Without
|
55
|
50
|
45
|
40
|
With
|
120
|
70
|
70
|
50
|
5. Quantification of Project Benefits:
Vehicle
Operating Cost Savings
As stated
earlier a major part of the economic benefits from the project implementation
is expected to accrue from the VOC savings. It is, therefore, important to have
a reliable estimate of vehicle operating costs per Km both under without and
with project conditions. Based. on the quadratic equations discussed above and
economic prices, vehicle operating cost per kilometer by type of vehicle under
without project conditions have already been worked. out (refer to Table-2). In
order to arrive at the total annual vehicle operating costs (AVOC) both under
'without' and 'with' project conditions, VOC per kilometer have been multiplied
with the AADT and distance traveled in a year annual vehicle operating costs
worked out in respect of diverted traffic both under without and with project
conditions are given in Table-6 and are summarized
Below:
Description
|
2013
|
2030
|
Without
project
|
5256
|
11427
|
With project
|
3942
|
8296
|
Savings
|
1314
|
3131
|
Total Project Benefits
Savings
|
2013
|
2030
|
VOC savings
|
1314
|
3130
|
VTT savings
|
530
|
1372
|
Total
|
1844
|
4502
|
Economic Analysis
|
(Rs. Millions)
Sr. No
|
Year
|
Capital
Cost
|
Maintenance
Cost
|
Benefits
|
Cash
Flow
|
10%
Increased
Costs
|
10%
Reduced
Benefits
|
Cash
Flow 10% Increased Cost
|
Cash
Flow
10%
Reduce Benefits
|
1
|
2009
|
1167
|
0
|
0
|
-1167
|
1283.7
|
0
|
-1283.7
|
-1167
|
2
|
2010
|
2985
|
0
|
0
|
-2985
|
3283.5
|
0
|
-3283.5
|
-2985
|
3
|
2011
|
2775
|
0
|
0
|
-2775
|
3052.5
|
0
|
-3052.5
|
-2775
|
4
|
2012
|
1343
|
0
|
0
|
-1343
|
1477.3
|
0
|
-1477.3
|
-1343
|
5
|
2013
|
0
|
8.74
|
1844.66
|
1835.76
|
9.761
|
1660.194
|
1834.899
|
1651.32
|
6
|
2014
|
0
|
8.74
|
1979.9
|
1971.06
|
9.761
|
1781.946
|
1970.179
|
1773.072
|
7
|
2015
|
0
|
8.74
|
2115.23
|
2106.3
|
9.761
|
1903.707
|
2105.469
|
1894.833
|
8
|
2016
|
0
|
8.74
|
2221.7
|
2212.84
|
9.761
|
1999.548
|
2211.959
|
1990.674
|
9
|
2017
|
0
|
8.74
|
2328.1
|
2319
|
9.761
|
2095.389
|
2318.449
|
2086.515
|
10
|
2018
|
0
|
8.74
|
2434.7
|
2425.826
|
9.761
|
2191.23
|
2191.23
|
2182.356
|
11
|
2019
|
0
|
8.74
|
2541.9
|
2541.19
|
9.761
|
2287.07
|
2287.071
|
2278.197
|
12
|
2020
|
0
|
8.74
|
2647.68
|
2638.806
|
9.761
|
2382.912
|
2637.919
|
2374.038
|
13
|
2021
|
0
|
8.74
|
2841.91
|
2833.036
|
9.761
|
2557.719
|
2832.149
|
2548.845
|
14
|
2022
|
0
|
8.74
|
3036.1
|
3027.256
|
9.761
|
2732.517
|
3026.369
|
2723.643
|
15
|
2023
|
0
|
353
|
3230.35
|
2877.35
|
388.3
|
2907.315
|
2842.05
|
2554.315
|
16
|
2024
|
0
|
8.74
|
3224.58
|
3415.706
|
9.761
|
3082.122
|
3414.819
|
3073.248
|
17
|
2025
|
0
|
8.74
|
3618
|
3609.926
|
9.761
|
3256.92
|
3609.039
|
3248.046
|
18
|
2026
|
0
|
8.74
|
3795.5
|
3786.626
|
9.761
|
3415.95
|
3785.739
|
3407.076
|
19
|
2027
|
0
|
8.74
|
3972.2
|
3963.336
|
9.761
|
3574.989
|
3962.449
|
3566.115
|
20
|
2028
|
0
|
8.74
|
4148.9
|
4140.036
|
9.761
|
3734.019
|
4139.149
|
3725.148
|
21
|
2029
|
0
|
8.74
|
4325.6
|
4316.736
|
9.761
|
3893.049
|
4315.849
|
3884.174
|
22
|
2030
|
0
|
8.74
|
4520.3
|
4493.436
|
9.761
|
4052.079
|
4492.549
|
4043.204
|
23
|
2031
|
0
|
8.74
|
4686.3
|
4677.356
|
9.761
|
4217.607
|
4676.469
|
4208.733
|
24
|
2032
|
0
|
8.74
|
8854.76
|
12645.89
|
-4170.24
|
7969.284
|
13024.99
|
11760.41
|
4470 521.6 68550.63 63559.024 5490.767 61695.5567 63059.86 56703.651
NPV 5999.93 105 12972.44 6867.52 6715.41 11675.20 6257.03 5570.27
Result of Economic Analysis
Benefit
/ Cost Ratio @ 12% Discount Rate 2.12
Net
Present Value @ 12% Discount Rate 6867.52
Millions
Internal
Rate of Return 21%
Ten (10%) Increased Cost
Benefit
/ Cost Ratio @ 12% Discount Rate 1.932
Net
Present Value @ 12% Discount Rate 6257.03
Millions
Internal
Rate of Return
20%
Ten (10%) Reduction in Benefits
Benefit
/ Cost Ratio @ 12% Discount Rate 1.91
Net
Present Value @ 12% Discount Rate 5570.27
Millions
Internal
Rate of Return
20%
6. Results of the Analysis
The discounted
cash flow of net benefits is given in Table. The economic indicators, thus
computed are summarized below:
Results of
analysis
Economic
Parameters
|
At 12%
Discount Rate
|
Present Worth
of Benefit Million Rs.)
|
12,972.44
|
Present Worth
of Costs (Million Rs.)
|
6.104.93
|
Net Present
Value (Million Rs.)
|
6.867.52
|
B/C Ratio
|
2.12
|
EIRR (Percent)
|
21%
|
7. Sensitivity Analysis
In order to
examine the effect of a possible increase in project costs and or decrease in
estimated economic benefits of the project, two alternate economic analyses
have been undertaken on the basis of a set of assumptions. The result of the
sensitivity analysis is given below:
Assumptions
|
EIRR(Percent)
|
Base case
|
21
|
Sensitivity
Tests
|
20
|
i. Benefits -
(I0% reduction)
|
|
ii. Costs *
(10% increase)
|
20
|
The results of
sensitivity analysis given above show that in all cases, the project is not
sensitive to any of the above assumptions as the calculated EIRR is all cases
is well above 12 percent.
No comments:
Post a Comment